Executive briefing

Week of 19 October 2026

Could AI reverse engineer the software you depend on?

Software logic is becoming a new source of choice.

Are we heading for another SaaS-pocalypse?

The first wave questioned software’s value. Could reverse engineering trigger the next?

Compare the two moments. Choose a date below.

The Guardian · historical headline

20 February 2026
Actual Guardian headline asking whether the share market is headed towards a SaaS-pocalypse.

Software shares under pressure

2 Jan–27 Feb 2026

Software shares versus S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Daily closes, 2 January = 100.

Adobe -7.3%in one trading day · 2026-02-03
Software shares under pressureSoftware shares versus S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite. Daily closes, 2 January = 100.60801002 Jan30 Jan27 Feb 2026
Adobe2026-02-27Indexed 78.7Close US$ 262.41
Yahoo Finance historical prices · S&P Global market context

Three selected software stocks; S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are references. Rebased to 2 January = 100; select a company or date to inspect.

SRE-Bench · reverse engineering

Can AI recover a binary’s core logic without source code?

Earlier models · public evaluation

Fully solved instancesOriginal paper · Tables 4 and 11

POTENTIAL NEXT WAVE · OCTOBER 2026

AI can investigate the software already in place.

MARKET REACTION

Another sell-off?An open question, not an observed October crash.

Creator announcement · published product image

Seven Adobe workflows. Open-source alternatives.

Official PhotoCraft image showing Curves and editable type layers.
Creator’s account · PhotoCraft

A creator-reported AI-assisted project. Inspectable code and published interfaces; full Adobe equivalence has not been demonstrated.

→
07

Adobe workflows, open-source alternatives

The creator reports using AI to develop seven alternatives.

PhotoshopPhotoCraft
IllustratorVectorCraft
PremiereFilmCraft
LightroomLightCraft
After EffectsEffectCraft
InDesignDesignCraft
Acrobat ProPdfCraft

Seven Adobe alternatives from the announcement; the wider catalogue has since expanded. Functional equivalence is not established. Creator’s account

SRE-Bench · reverse engineering

Can AI recover a binary’s core logic without source code?

Newer models · four-attempt research evaluation

Internal pass@4 · no budget cap · safeguards offOriginal paper · Tables 4 and 11

February is an observed sell-off. October is a capability signal, not a documented second crash.

AI may lower the cost of building an alternative and discovering the behaviour it needs to preserve.

AI is starting to recover business logic.

Copying an interface is one layer. Keeping the system running through a failure is the next hurdle.

What this means in software

01 / 03 · Interface

The screen looks ready.

Menus and buttons can be convincing before the business rules are connected.

Authored demo · front end only

salesdesk.demo
Sales desk

Your pipeline. One workspace.

02

Demo accounts

$0

Pipeline forecast

Demo account A

Approval logic not connected

Try the tabs, amount or buttons. The screen changes; no business rule runs and no record is stored. This intentionally incomplete demo does not represent every vibe-coded app.

Menus and buttons.

02 / 03 · Working logic

The rules behind it can work, too.

Open a document, edit it and keep the result. That requires logic behind the interface.

Adobe’s published Photoshop workspace tutorial still.
PhotoshopAdobe tutorial still
PhotoCraft official interface showing editable layers and Curves.
PhotoCraftCreator-published app screenshot

Separate official images, not a same-file comparison or an independently verified workflow. Select either to enlarge.

Files, rules and real output.

03 / 03 · Enterprise resilience

Can it keep running when something fails?

A bank or exchange needs capacity, failover and consistent transaction records. Those still need proof.

Enterprise transaction system · illustration

  1. 01Normal processing
  2. 02Traffic surge: more orders arriving
  3. 03Processing interrupted: recovery unproven

Processing interrupted: recovery unproven

Order arrivalsHigh volume
Primary processingPrimary unavailable
Trade recordsCompletion unconfirmed
Standby and recovery: must be provenNo lost trades · No duplicates · Consistent state

The dashed standby marks a requirement for a proposed replacement. This illustration does not prove failover or depict HKEX’s internal architecture.

Recovery under load. Still to prove.

Can it recover from failure without losing or duplicating transactions? HKEX: platform recovery requirements

AI can follow a clue into the business logic.

It reads the existing calculation, identifies a pricing rule and connects it to the result.

Salesforce E-Bikes · illustration

Complete view
THE INTERFACEHIDDEN RULESAI mapsAI reads the calculationRetail price ×0.6Found: 60% reseller rateTrade pricing60% of retail.?QuantitiesAll sizes count.?Saved pricesExisting items.?RoundingRound unit price.?Logic mappedE-BikesORDERBike dealerBikesOrder total9$38,880

AI reads a calculation, identifies a rule and maps where it fits.

Illustration based on public sample code, not a recorded AI run. View Salesforce source

One black box can keep an old system in your stack.

Your SaaS apps may be connected, yet one old rule still blocks a change.

Illustrative enterprise stack

Complete view

Software competition can change one function at a time.

A smaller replacement could open a new route while keeping the systems and connectors that still work.

Illustrative integrations. Any replacement still needs compatibility and resilience checks. ADP: AI-assisted analysis of existing tax code. Provider case study

You may not need to replace an entire platform to regain a meaningful choice.

Start with the small dependency that has kept a bigger decision on hold.

01

Find the rule that keeps you tied in.

Separate the component you cannot explain from the platform around it.

For example: a bank’s old interest or fee calculation.

02

Recover what a replacement must preserve.

Make the business rules and connections explicit before evaluating alternatives.

For example: a CRM commission or approval workflow.

03

Change the smallest useful part.

Keep the systems that work, then test the replacement’s compatibility and resilience.

For example: an ERP export format or connector.

A small thought experiment for you

If AI could help explain one black box in your stack, which technology decision would you reopen?